"Due Date"

Am I in Labor?? “Due Dates” and Signs of Labor

January 10, 20254 min read

Did you know that your estimated “due date” (EDD) is actually NOT a good predictor of going into labor?

In fact, it should truly be reconceptualized as a “due window.” A normal window for babies to be born is between 37 to 43 weeks gestation (if calculations for conception are actually correct). But there are truly no stats on how long babies can actually gestate safely due to interventions to “get babies out” after 40 weeks.

Only 4% of babies are actually born on their estimated due date. Why? Because it is highly inaccurate! EDD is based on the last menstrual period (LMP), which is also highly inaccurate. EDD is calculated at 40 weeks from the first day of a woman’s LMP based on the woman’s (many times very inaccurate) memory and the assumption that she has a 28 day cycle and conceived exactly 14 days after the first day of her LMP. Give me a break… like we’re all just carbon-copied well-oiled female machines here?! 

That’s a lot of assumptions and guessing for a day so many pregnant mamas put so much faith in!

waiting...

Studies show that obstetric calculations based on LMP tend to underestimate the due date when compared to dating from ultrasounds. This, of course, leads to extra inductions for women who are NOT actually “overdue”.

So, basing when baby arrives on the date prescribed to you by an OB or ultrasound tech is not a good predictor of labor actually starting. Factors that do affect when baby arrives might surprise you: age, ethnicity, season and previous number of births all factor into when baby will make their appearance. But, truly, baby will come when both mama and baby are ready. And even though it may seem like torture those last few weeks, generally an older baby is a healthier baby. Big and robust with fully developed lungs! (However, having 4/5 kids that went “past their due date,” I know that it can cause anxiety and stress due to pressure from friends, family and doctors/midwives to go into labor before you hit that elusive mark.)

So, if you’re nearing the mark, take a deep breath: labor happens best when it is spontaneous and mama is relaxed! And in the meantime, here are 10 signs you might be in labor:

  1. Waters breaking:

    Although the premature rupture of membranes is the classical depiction of labor in most media, it represents less than 10% of births. 90% of mamas go into spontaneous labor within 24 hours of membrane rupturing, though the rupture of membranes is safe up to three days after waters release if there are no cervical checks. Most waters open during active labor. 1 in 80,000 babies are born en caul (inside their sac with no rupture). 

  2. Contractions:

    They should be called “contraction-expansions” because that is what is actually happening! They will have a wave pattern, building in intensity, length and time between. They can come and go, can peter off or “stall”, which is called precipitous or prodromal labor. But, when it’s the real deal, they tend to get stronger and more consistent, steadily. “Braxton Hicks” (now called “practice contractions”), in contrast, do not build or follow this pattern. 

    contraction-expansions
  3. Cervical dilation:

    Dilation can begin weeks before labor and can chain rapidly and can go backwards. For this reason, I do not like it as a predictor. Plus, there are many negative consequences of cervical checks, both physical, mental and emotional.

  4. Losing your mucus plug:

    The mucus plug looks, honestly, like a blob of clear or pink snot, usually in your panties or on TP after you wipe. Losing it can happen weeks before labor begins - and it can regrow and be lost again!

  5. The “bloody show”:

    Your cervical mucus can be tinged pink or red from ruptured blood vessels in your cervix. The discharge may be thicker than it has been before, also.

  6. Loose bowels:

    The release of the hormone prostaglandin helps body eliminate in preparation for labor and allows uterus to contract effectively.

  7. The “nesting” urge:

    An overwhelming desire to clean, tidy and ready your space for baby can be a sign labor is weeks or days away.

    clean all the things!
  8. Baby dropping into pelvis (engaging):

    This can look like many symptoms: pelvic pressure, waddling, having to pee more and low back pain are common. It is also called “lightning” because it can help you breathe easier due to the pressure leaving your diaphragm. But, engaging can happen a month or just hours before birth! 

  9. Menstrual like cramping or back pain:

    Before your contractions really get going, you may experience what feels like the coming of a period.

  10. Feeling “off” or weird:

    Some women experience a “trippy” feeling in the days or hours just before labor. If you’re feeling otherworldly, or just feeling a bit out of it, it could mean you’re close to holding your little one outside of the womb!


If you are on your pregnancy journey, I would be honored to walk this path with you. You can contact me via Aurora Holistic Birth.

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